On Thursday, June 27 on CNN, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump engaged in a historic debate in Fulton County, Georgia. A variety of topics were discussed, but the biggest takeaway from commentators and voters alike was not related to any specific policy, but rather Biden’s personal performance.
Immediately after the debate, there was universal agreement that Biden did poorly (a fact admitted by the President himself) and that Trump performed better by comparison. The reasoning for this is clear to anyone who watched, as Biden confirmed the worst fears about his mental acuity. As a result, there is a growing sense of discontent with his continued candidacy, even among Democrats. What does this mean for Maine and the country at large?
Many are asserting that the Democratic Party should substitute Biden for another candidate, but it’s not that simple. Despite President Biden’s increasingly diminished electoral prospects, replacing him this late in the election would be difficult politically and is unlikely to improve the party’s poll numbers.
Regarding the debate itself, 67% of voters believe Trump won. Only 18% of voters believe Biden inspired confidence, 28% believe he appeared presidential, and 21% believe he presented his ideas clearly. By contrast, 44% believe Trump inspired confidence, 46% believe he appeared presidential, and 47% believe he presented his ideas clearly. Furthermore, post-debate polling found that 53% of voters are more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s criminal charges, with a whopping 72% of voters agreeing Biden should not be running for president.
The most enduring effect of the debate has been speculation and commentary regarding whether or not President Biden should remain the Democratic candidate. President Biden’s polling numbers have declined significantly since the debate. According to the 538 polling average, the pre-debate national average had Trump ahead by 0.2%, while polling as of July 15 had Trump ahead by 1.9%.
Furthermore, nearly 57% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job as President. Most striking, Biden is the lowest polling incumbent since Jimmy Carter and even polls below incumbent presidential candidates who went on to lose their races. As a result, several Democratic officials have publicly called for Biden to step down, including Sen. Mark Warner (D-Virginia), who has been working to assemble a group of senators to advocate for his exit, although he has taken a softer tone in recent days.
However, as of now, there is no sign President Biden will step aside. On July 8, Biden released a letter confirming his intention to stay in the race. In an interview, he declared that only God could convince him to leave. Further, his family is urging him to stay in the race, and many prominent Democratic officials (including Governor Mills) have publicly stated their intent to stick with the president.
But from the DNC’s perspective, would another candidate perform better? It is important to note that the most likely alternative to Joe Biden is Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris has direct access to Biden’s campaign infrastructure, she’s the vice president, and limited polls show her as the favorite amongst Democratic voters should Biden step aside.
On June 29, Data for Progress conducted a national survey with Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, and other Democrats alongside a standard poll with President Biden. Despite the wide variety of alternatives, none of them cracked Biden’s 45% support or fell below 43% support. Trump, for his part, garnered 48% support against Joe Biden and did not fall below 46% against any of the alternative candidates. Every single Democratic candidate polled 2-3% lower than Trump. Notably, Harris performed identically to Biden in this poll.
On July 8, a new poll released by Emerson College showed that Trump led Biden by three points and Harris by six points. While there have also been polls showing Harris outperforming President Biden (such as a head-to-head poll on July 6), it is not clear her numbers would be an improvement.
With that in mind, it appears unlikely Biden would step aside, or that him doing so would improve the chances for the Democratic Party to retain the presidency. Many Americans disapprove of Biden’s job on the economy and immigration, and it is hard to see how replacing Biden with his hand-picked vice president would alleviate voter concerns.
Ultimately, these results indicate a nation deeply divided along ideological lines that will not respond strongly to candidate changes. In many ways, this makes sense. It is difficult to imagine a voter opposed to Biden’s agenda who would vote for his vice president instead. While there has been an occasional poll showing Michelle Obama performing better, her staff has repeatedly dismissed notions of her interest in running for president.
In Maine, polling has indicated a neck-and-neck contest. It is important to note such polling may be outdated, but the fact that statewide polls are within one to two points speaks to a shift in Maine’s political trajectory (Biden won Maine by 9 points in 2020, for context). If the shift in national polling is reflected in Maine, Trump will be slightly favored to win the state. It is also worth noting RFK Jr’s high level of support (10-15%) will have a stark effect on the outcome given Maine’s ranked-choice voting system. However, even if former President Trump were to lose the state, a closer margin could have a profound impact on state legislative races.
The coattail effect is a widely documented phenomenon whereby a presidential candidate who performs well at the top of the ticket will help candidates of the same party in down-ballot races. While it is difficult to predict the exact measure by which this impacts local races, it is not unreasonable to suggest that an improvement in Trump’s 2020 performance in Maine could have positive downstream effects on other Republican candidates for the Legislature.
In Maine’s Second Congressional District, the only competitive congressional race in the state this November, Rep. Jared Golden has made several statements distancing himself from the president following the debate, even going so far as to declare he will not vote for Biden unless he is convinced the president is “physically or mentally equipped” for a second term. Whether or not this strategy will work out for Golden remains to be seen, but the comments are not surprising given both the conservative leanings of his district and Golden’s consistent record of working across the aisle and defying his party.
In conclusion, the debate was a disastrous performance from the perspective of the Biden campaign, and the aftermath has clearly worsened the president’s electoral prospects. At the same time, there is no clear alternative who would perform better, least of all Kamala Harris. Simply put, polling conducted to date doesn’t indicate a strong change in voter preference if Biden were to step aside.
Connor Feeney, of South Portland, is currently serving as a policy intern this summer at Maine Policy. He has contributed to several sections of the Legislative Guidebook for the 132nd Maine Legislature concerning education, elections, and government reform. Connor is a fourth-year undergraduate student at the University of Southern Maine studying political science and economics, and is expected to graduate in December 2024.