FATAL CONCEIT: MORTALITY IN MAINE DURING THE COVID-19 ERA

EXPLORING MAINE MORTALITY DATA

All deaths recorded in Maine from 2018 to 2021 are displayed in the graph below, one can see a dramatically-increasing trendline (red) since early 2020, compared to mortality from 2018 until March 2020 (blue). The pandemic-era trajectory is distinctly higher than pre-pandemic. Noticeable spikes occurred in the winter surge of late 2020 as well as in the latter half of 2021, exceeding any which had occurred since 2018.

In order to better understand which groups were most affected by this spike in mortality, we looked at two datasets from the CDC using slightly different age groupings. Deriving a historical baseline of mortality from weekly data across 2015 to 2019, we find considerable annual excess mortality in 2020 of more than 10%—but that paled in comparison to 2021, when the state saw an excess of more than 20% on average. In raw numbers, about 1,065 more Mainers than expected passed away in 2020, but more than 2,400 more died in 2021. Most staggering, 43% more Mainers aged 30 to 49 died in 2021 than would be expected in a “normal” year.

Data from CDC Quarterly Provisional Mortality estimates show a substantial spike in mortality across all age groups in the final quarter of 2021, with the worst befalling Mainers between age 30 and 49. While excess mortality among those between 50 and 64 trended generally within the bounds of the population-wide average, excess death in that age group jumped to become significantly higher than the average by the last half of 2021.

Looking at deaths attributed to “COVID” versus those which are not (referred herein as “non-COVID” deaths), we find greater non-COVID excess mortality in Maine among younger age groups in 2020, which seemed to have caught up to older groups in 2021. Middle-age groups experienced this phenomenon in both years, though also much worse in 2021. The graphs below demonstrate the extent to which deaths attributed to COVID and non-COVID causes were responsible for that age group’s excess mortality in each quarter.

Percentage of Maine Excess Mortality by Age Group, COVID-19 and non-COVID causes

While older age groups experienced significant COVID-related mortality during 2020 and into the winter surge of early 2021, data show that the virus can explain only about half of the excess. Excess mortality skyrocketed in the last half of 2021, with COVID-related deaths rising as well as non-COVID causes, even though COVID-19 vaccination was widely accepted. Perhaps most striking is that, while Mainers aged 30 to 49 experienced few COVID-related deaths for most of the pandemic, those jumped in the last quarter of 2021 to drive 26% excess deaths, while non-COVID causes also spiked to contribute another 46% excess. Overall, 73% more Mainers aged 30-49 died during the last three months of 2021 than would be expected.

USMortality.com shows that even during the winter COVID surge of late 2020 and early 2021, Maine’s excess mortality percentage exceeded the normal range for only a short time. But, in the latter half of 2021, the state saw between 18% and 42% more deaths than expected each week during this time, greater than at any time in 2020. It is difficult to overstate how rare a mortality event like this is in human history. Life insurers like OneAmerica and RGA quoted above regard a 10% increase in excess mortality as a three-standard-deviation occurrence, or a once-in-200-year event. Frankly, 30-40% excess is astronomical.

In 2021, more Mainers’ deaths were attributed to COVID than in 2020, growing concurrently with non-COVID deaths over the year. An August 2022 report by the Society of Actuaries (SOA) found that Americans younger than 45 were at higher risk of death for non-COVID causes over the pandemic. Indications that COVID-19 is not the primary driver of higher-than-expected mortality prompt further investigation to other possible explanations.

In most-to-all age groups, excess mortality was the highest in the fourth quarter of 2021. Why was this the case? Shouldn’t we have seen lower mortality—at least from COVID-19 itself, to say nothing of overall mortality—from widely deploying several new public health strategies like COVID-19 vaccination and treatments like Pfizer’s Paxlovid? Shouldn’t the state and the nation have been able to save more lives, not fewer, as the pandemic progressed and science and government officials learned more?